Modeling the Puzzle of Hepatitis C Epidemiology in Romania: A Pathway to Control

Authors

  • Henrique Lopes Public Health Unit, Institute of Health Sciences, Catholic University of Portugal, Palma de Cima, Lisbon, Portugal
  • Ricardo Baptista-Leite Faculty of Health, Medicine and Life Sciences, Maastricht University. Institute of Health Sciences, Catholic University of Portugal, Lisbon, Portugal
  • Diogo Franco Public Health Unit, Institute of Health Sciences, Catholic University of Portugal, Palma de Cima, Lisbon, Portugal
  • Irina Eclemea Elias Emergency University Hospital, Bucharest, Romania
  • Eugenia C Bratu Department of Public Health and Management, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
  • Florentina L Furtunescu Department of Public Health and Management, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania
  • Corina Silvia Pop UMF "CAROL DAVILA"
  • Bogdan C Pana Department of Public Health and Management, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bucharest, Romania

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15403/jgld-643

Keywords:

hepatitis C, modeling, public policies, public health

Abstract

Background and Aims: To combat hepatitis C virus (HCV) and achieve its elimination by 2030, the emphasis should be on public health policies. In this study, we investigated the dynamics of epidemiology of HCV in Romanian risk groups that are characterized by higher occurrence densities with the aid of The Let’s End HepC (LEHC) project.

Methods: The LEHC project addressed the modelling of HCV epidemiology, being applied in several countries, one of which is Romania. The model comprised an integrated solution of public health policies focused on the disease, using Adaptive Conjoint Analysis and Markov chains systems. This tool allowed the quantitative evaluation of public health policies‘ impact, for every year until 2030, in five population groups: people who inject drugs (PWID), prisoners, individuals who have received blood products, children at risk for vertical transmission, and the remnant population.

Results: It appears that Romania was already making great efforts in the context of public policies, allowing the achievement of HCV elimination by 2028 if current policies were maintained. Through additional work and greater efforts in further implementing public policies, the LEHC model estimated the possibility of anticipating this outcome to 2026.

Conclusion: The LEHC model estimated an anticipation of the HCV elimination year in Romania to be 2026 if the twenty-four health policies in the study are fully implemented and consistently maintained over the years.

Downloads

Published

2020-09-09

How to Cite

1.
Lopes H, Baptista-Leite R, Franco D, Eclemea I, Bratu EC, Furtunescu FL, Pop CS, Pana BC. Modeling the Puzzle of Hepatitis C Epidemiology in Romania: A Pathway to Control. JGLD [Internet]. 2020 Sep. 9 [cited 2025 Jul. 9];29(3):377-84. Available from: https://www.jgld.ro/jgld/index.php/jgld/article/view/643

Issue

Section

Original Article